Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts

Monday, May 28, 2018

Vision Project: The Politics of a "New Economy"

Vision Project: The Politics of a "New Economy"


Anthony Flaccavento’s run for Congress in Virginia’s 9th district suggests a new way forward for progressive politics. His issue platform incorporates many of the ideas he puts forward in his book, Building a Healthy Economy from the Bottom Up: Harnessing Real-World Experience for Transformative Change. A farmer from rural western Virginia, he presents a modern articulation of communal and agrarian values that emphasizes community control of the economy and a return to respect for the land as the ecological base for society. He adopts a pro-business yet anti-corporate stance, emphasizing the need to “level the playing field for workers, local businesses and the community banks that lend to them” while also “reinvigorat[ing] anti-trust laws to reverse the extraordinary concentration of power held by a handful of giant corporations.” Focusing on health care, education, energy, and agricultural policy – issues important to rural voters – he calls for Medicare for All, free community college for all, and a “Marshall Plan” for Appalachia based on a just transition away from coal, among other progressive ideas.
           Flaccavento’s platform is not without its limitations. For instance, he does not discuss issues of particular importance to people of color, immigrants, or the LGBTQ community, including criminal justice and immigration reform and non-discrimination legislation. He also does not discuss housing or transportation policy, which is particularly important to urban voters. He also makes no mention of foreign policy, nor of the need to protect civil liberties. However, such omissions do not necessarily mean he doesn’t have a progressive stance on these issues. Instead, he is simply not emphasizing them in a 90% white, pro-Trump rural district. Importantly, he does not take a conservative stance on any of the issues he does take a position on. In other words, while his platform may not be comprehensive, it is noncompromising. He takes explicit pro-choice and pro-gun control positions, which is refreshing to see coming from a Democrat running in a conservative area.
Flaccavento’s book and platform are part of a broader trend of economists and activists, including Gar Alperovitz, Marjorie Kelly, David Korten, Bill McKibben, and Richard Wolff, who advocate for what has been dubbed the “New Economy” – the transition to a cooperative economic system. Such a system relies on neither markets nor states, although it does not completely eschew either. Instead, it is based on constructing new economic institutions that promote direct democratic control by workers and communities, including cooperatives, worker-owned and self-directed enterprises, locally owned small businesses, and publicly owned enterprises. Such a system aligns with the thinking of Elinor Ostrom, the first (and to date only) woman to win the Nobel Prize for economics, whose Nobel lecture was titled “Beyond Markets and States”. Best known for her work analyzing the commons, Ostrom advocated for bottom-up, democratized control of the economy, as opposed to top-down private or state management.
Flaccavento’s platform would go a long way toward addressing the issues laid out by Steven Stoll in Ramp Hollow: The Ordeal of Appalachia. Employing a critique of capitalism similar to that of Karl Polanyi, Stoll describes the rise of industrial capitalism through the lens of the Appalachian agrarian. He emphasizes that throughout history humans have lived subsistence lifestyles based on household economies. Private ownership of property, by contrast, is a very recent development, one which led to enclosure of the commons, destruction of the subsistence economy, and mass dislocation of whole societies – a process which continues to this day. Like Polanyi, Stoll argues that capitalism was not inevitable, but came together due to the conscious commodification of land, labor, and money. For his part, Polanyi puts forward the idea that a market-based system is not the natural organization of society, and like private property is a recent development in human history. He argues that the creation and maintenance of a market-based system has produced unsustainable social dislocation. (Psychologist Bruce Alexander in part used Polanyi’s analysis to develop his “dislocation theory of addiction” – for which the opioid epidemic across Appalachia unfortunately provides further evidence.) Such dislocation in turn has produced a “countermovement” designed to protect society from the effects of the market-based system.
This analysis of capitalism by Stoll and Polanyi serves as a particularly useful framework for understanding the development of neoliberalism and the increasing rejection of it from both Right and Left in recent years. In the 2016 election, this manifested itself in the form of support for the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Flaccavento’s run for Congress represents another rejection of neoliberalism, as he seeks to end both the limitless extraction of the Earth’s resources and the exploitation of workers and the communities they work and live in. Furthermore, Flaccavento wants to start to rebuild the household economy referenced by Stoll, and make sweeping changes to our current economic system as a whole to make it based less on generating profit and more on building community and protecting the ecological base – in other words, decommoditizing  land, labor, and money.
I think that what Flaccavento and others argue for is largely missing from the Left’s mainstream narrative and agenda, which I feel limits the political potential of the Left. From a public policy perspective, promoting alternative institutions would help build relocalized, more sustainable economies. It would also help to rebuild communities and their social capital and begin to reverse the dislocation caused by capitalism, especially its neoliberal manifestation. Politically speaking, advocating for alternative institutions would help provide a path forward for the growing numbers of people who are skeptical of capitalism and open to social democratic or even socialistic ideas. While current Left thinking seems to focus mostly on “countervailing” or “leveraged” power (i.e. taxation, regulation, and unionization) – which assumes that corporations will remain the dominant economic institution – I prefer that workers take power directly. Additionally, because such solutions do not typically rely on the government, they can have broader appeal than other programs more reliant on the state. It would also help promote a narrative that begins to shift from thinking of government as some separate entity known as “the state” and toward actually being made up of “the body of the people”.             
I see enormous political potential for this public policy platform, particularly as it relates to the Democratic Party. It is no secret that Democrats have struggled mightily to win votes outside of urban areas and college towns. Looking at a precinct level map of the 2016 presidential election results displays just how stark the situation is. Of course, Democrats can and do win in rural communities of color, including in the Black Belt of the South and in the Latino and Native areas of the West. Nonetheless, the Democratic strategy, vividly on display during Hillary Clinton’s campaign, has been to court college-educated suburbanites. This has led to alienation of rural and small town voters as well as depressed turnout in the inner cities. If the Democrats want to retake power at the state and federal levels, they’ll need to build a multiracial, class-based urban-rural coalition.
To do so, Democrats need to move away from the neoliberal, corporate-based “blue state” economic development model described by Thomas Frank, and instead adopt the bottom-up, local community-based one proposed by Flaccavento and others. In New York this includes rejecting the economic development model of Governor Andrew Cuomo, which is based on providing subsidies, tax breaks, and other incentives in an attempt to bring in large firms and enterprises from elsewhere (e.g. his failed STARTUP-NY plan). Doing so could help to bridge the so-called “urban-rural divide” that has dominated New York State politics. To that end, I am encouraged by gubernatorial candidate Cynthia Nixon’s recent tweet: “It’s time for a smarter, bottom-up approach to economic development in New York state. The community must be included in the decision making process and all projects should meet local needs and serve local populations.” Although not quite as comprehensive as Flaccavento’s vision, it is still refreshing to hear a Democratic politician employ such rhetoric. Let’s hope that more politicians – Democratic or otherwise – start to take a similar approach.

Further Reading:
  • Alexander, Bruce K. The Globalization of Addiction: A Study in Poverty of the Spirit, 2008.
  • Alperovitz, Gar. America beyond Capitalism: Reclaiming Our Wealth, Our Liberty, & Our Democracy, 2011.
  • Alperovitz, Gar. What Then Must We Do? Straight Talk about the Next American Revolution, 2013.
  • Flaccavento, Anthony. Building a Healthy Economy from the Bottom Up: Harnessing Real-World Experience for Transformative Change, 2016.
  • Frank, Thomas. Listen Liberal: Whatever Happened to the Party of the People?, 2016.
  • Kelly, Marjorie. Owning our Future: The Emerging Ownership Revolution, 2012.
  • Korten, David C. The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community, 2006.
  • McKibben, Bill. Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future, 2007.
  • Polanyi, Karl. The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time, 2001.
  • Stoll, Steven. Ramp Hollow: The Ordeal of Appalachia, 2017.
  • Wall, Derek. Elinor Ostrom’s Rules for Radicals: Cooperative Alternatives beyond Markets and States, 2017
  • Wolf, Richard. Democracy at Work: A Cure for Capitalism, 2012.


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Saturday, November 26, 2016

What the Hell Happened in Ohio?

What the Hell Happened in Ohio?

For the most part, the data backs up the narrative that Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton due to the defection of white working-class voters from the Democratic Party. According to CNN exit polls, Clinton lost whites without college degrees (the proxy category for the white working-class) by a spectacular 29% to 66% margin. This represented a 19-point decline for the Democrats compared to eight years ago, when Obama only lost those voters 40% to 58% to John McCain. In particular, this collapse of support was staggering in the Rust Belt states that propelled Trump to an Electoral College victory: 37 points in Michigan, 33 in Wisconsin, 26 in Iowa, 20 in Ohio, and 17 in Pennsylvania. Had Clinton been able to maintain even a small portion of the support of these voters, she would have assuredly won the presidency.

With that being said, let’s focus on Ohio for a second. The three maps below provide some insight into why Trump won that state. The map on the left shows Trump’s performance (colored in orange) versus Gov. John Kasich (colored in red) during the Republican presidential primary. As you can see, Trump won the counties along the eastern and southern portions of the state, while Kasich won most of the rest en route to his only primary victory. This pattern of support for Trump in Ohio would reappear during the general election, as shown on the map in the middle. The darkest blue colors indicate the largest shifts in support toward the Republican Party from the 2012 to the 2016 election. These shifts toward Trump are also concentrated in the eastern and southern portions of the state. These areas are analogous to the Appalachian region of Ohio, shown on the map to the right. One could conclude from this that Trump was able to win Ohio because of the strong support he received from white working-class voters in the Appalachia region.


Such an analysis, however, fails to tell the whole story. Largely unnoticed in the post-election analysis is the stunning fact that Clinton also experienced a 24-point decline in support among whites with college degrees in Ohio, compared to Obama in 2008. What’s more, Ohio was the only state in which the decline in support was greater among college educated versus non-college educated whites. This is made even more stunning by the fact that Clinton’s support nationally among this voting bloc actually represented a 1-point improvement over Obama’s margin against McCain (45%-48% compared to 47%-51%).

So what exactly happened? The map below tells part of the story. The states in red are the states in which Democrats lost support among college-educated whites since 2008, while the states in blue are the ones where their support grew (CNN does not have exit poll data for the states in gray).  As you can see, there is a clear geographic split, with these voters in the South and West trending toward the Democrats and voters in the Midwest and Northeast peeling away. Ohio saw the most pronounced negative shift, followed by Missouri (17 points) and Florida (15 points). The greatest gains for the Democrats came in Utah (28 points) and Texas (18 points).


So it’s clear that the losses were part of a larger regional (though not national) trend. However, this still doesn’t explain why they were so pronounced in Ohio. Unfortunately, the exit polling provides little insight, and in fact only makes the situation even more muddled.

As it is, the exit polling reveals something rather counterintuitive about Trump’s support in Ohio. CNN asked Ohio voters whether or not they had a favorable opinion of Gov. Kasich. 50% did, while 40% did not. What is remarkable is that Clinton led 49%-46% among those who did, but trailed 35%-65% among those who did not. Extrapolating these numbers out, more than 57% of Clinton voters in Ohio had a favorable opinion of Kasich, compared to less than 48% of Trump voters. In other words, the Republican governor of Ohio was more popular among those who voted for the Democratic presidential nominee than the Republican one.

There was no secret that Gov. Kasich and President-elect Donald Trump have had an icy relationship at best. Kasich refused to endorse Trump after the primary, and did not even appear at the Republican National Convention held in his own state. On the surface, it would appear that Kasich’s supporters (especially in Ohio) were exactly the kind of voters who Hillary Clinton tried to court in the general election: moderate, suburban, college-educated whites who had no particular love for Trump. However, the exit polling shows that not only did Clinton fail to win over these voters, she actually lost many of them to Trump. He won by 20 points in the suburbs, whereas McCain lost there by a point.  Clinton won moderates by only 6 points, whereas Obama had won them by 23. Counter to the idea that Kasich supporters were drowned out by a surge in turnout of the white working-class, there was actually a greater percentage of college educated whites among the electorate in 2016 than in 2008 (37% vs 33%), and a smaller percentage of non-college whites (43% vs 50%). As we’ve seen, those college educated whites ended up voting en masse for Trump. In fact, based on the exit polling it appears that more non-college whites voted for Clinton than college educated whites.

As baffling as this all seems, it is clear that many Kasich and even Obama supporters voted for Trump. Regardless of class or education level, whites in Ohio saw Trump as the agent of change that Hillary Clinton could never be for them, and the same could be said for white voters all across the country. This in part also explains why so many white voters, particularly working-class whites, decided to vote for Bernie Sanders in state after state during the Democratic primary.

Perhaps the most fascinating revelation from all of this is that had Clinton simply maintained Democratic support among college educated white voters in the Midwest, as she did overall nationally, she would have won the election. There is no question that she would have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (not to mention Florida), even in the face of the “revolt” of the white-working class. It even appears possible that she would have won Ohio. This all goes to show just how spectacular of a failure the Clinton campaign really was. The Democratic Party’s decision to portray themselves as the party of the status quo proved disastrous in the end.

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