A New York State of Politics
Today's revelations by the New York Times regarding Governor Andrew Cuomo's interference with the Moreland Commission is not exactly surprising, but it has the potential to shake up the campaign for his reelection. As of now, this report can only strengthen the candidacies of Cuomo's three main challengers: Zephyr Teachout, who is running against Cuomo in the Democratic primary; Rob Astorino, the nominee of the Republican and Conservative parties; and Howie Hawkins, the Green Party nominee. All three campaigns issued statements earlier today condemning the Administration's actions, and Teachout is circulating a petition calling on Cuomo to resign.
The potential electoral impacts of this news are hard to determine at this stage. A recent Siena College poll showed Cuomo with a 37-point lead over Astorino (60-23), with Hawkins drawing 6%. Other polls have shown similar results. In addition, there has been no polling of a Cuomo-Teachout primary; in May Cuomo defeated Teachout by a 59-41 margin at the Working Families Party convention. All of this seems to indicate that Cuomo was in strong position for reelection before today.
The question is whether that will change. There is certainly an undercurrent of discontent with the Governor, both Left and Right, and today's news will only serve to intensify this. Liberals and progressives are angry with Mr. Cuomo for failing them on tax policy, education funding, and campaign finance reform, among other things. A decisive moment came in May at the Working Families Party convention. Cuomo was able to ward off the Teachout challenge by brokering a deal with party leaders through New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and his union allies. In the agreement, Cuomo promised to support a Democratic majority in the state senate (currently controlled by a Republican-IDC coalition) in order to work for a progressive agenda in the next legislative session. Many (including myself) were not convinced. Indeed, just a day later Cuomo began backtracking on some aspects of the "deal".
It was from this scenario that the current Zephyr Teachout-Tim Wu (who is opposing Cuomo running mate Kathy Hochul) primary challenge emerged. Teachout, a Fordham law professor and veteran of the 2004 Howard Dean campaign, is running a campaign based on economic populism and good government reform; she has at times been compared to Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Her campaign so far has attracted disaffected activists associated with the WFP and/or its partners, as well as other New York liberals and progressives. The likelihood of a Teachout primary victory is slim, although this report does perhaps crack open the door a tiny bit. If she were to win, New York would see a very convoluted four-way race, with Teachout on the Democratic line, Astorino on the Republican and Conservative lines, Cuomo still on the Working Families and Independence lines, and Howie Hawkins on the Green line. If that were to somehow happen, frankly anything would be possible: Astorino winning due to a divided left, Cuomo winning on the third-party lines, or Teachout or even Hawkins slipping through to the victory.
The Hawkins campaign on the Green Party line is certainly a big beneficiary of this report as well. The party received 60,000 votes in 2010, enough to maintain ballot status through this cycle, and is in far stronger shape here in 2014. The campaign has already raised more funds than in their entire run last time, and finally has begun outreach in the New York City area (the party is mostly based in Syracuse). Polling has shown Hawkins drawing between 4% and 6%, perhaps with room to grow. That would especially be the case if Teachout fails to win the Democratic primary, which would leave Hawkins as the only progressive candidate in the race.
Rob Astorino should also not be forgotten here. Although he still has little name recognition and has been polling in the 20s, it must be considered that he appeals directly to Upstate conservative ire with Cuomo and his policies. The Right has become incensed with Cuomo over the SAFE Act, Common Core, and the delay over hydrofracking on the Southern Tier. I would not be surprised if Astorino's numbers improve as the race progresses.
Besides Cuomo himself, I think the other big loser here is the Working Families Party. Many supporters of the party, especially those directly involved in community activism and organizing, were skeptical at the time of Cuomo's nomination, and nothing has taken place since to assuage their concerns. Even the deal to bring the IDC back into coalition with the Democrats came at the expense of two progressive primary challengers, John Liu and Oliver Koppell, who immediately lost their WFP endorsements. To add insult to injury, both the unions and Mayor de Blasio ended up endorsing their opponents, Tony Avella and Senate co-President Jeffrey Klein. These so-called concessions have drawn the attention of progressives at the national level, with the widely read blog Daily Kos heavily criticizing both Cuomo and the WFP. I find it likely that the WFP will lose a significant number of votes from 2010, and some have already stated that they will instead vote for the Green Party. Even before this revelation, the Cuomo endorsement was having a tangible negative impact on organizing efforts by the WFP's partner organizations, including Citizen Action of New York.
Even if Cuomo does win reelection, which still seems highly likely, this controversy over the Moreland Commission will likely continue to haunt the Governor, especially if he has plans to run for higher office one day. It is no secret here in Albany that many think Mr. Cuomo wants to run for President, perhaps as soon as 2016. A scandal involving charges of corruption, ethics violations, and potential criminal activity can do nothing to help that cause.
On a more personal note, I actually had the chance to meet Larry Schwartz, the secretary to the Governor who is at the center of the controversy, just last month. Described to me as the "second most powerful person in the state" (behind Cuomo), I would not be surprised at all if these allegations prove to be true.
As for my own view of the race, I intend to vote for Teachout in the Democratic primary, although I will not actively campaign for her. However, I will note that it is because of candidacies like hers that I am registered as a Democrat. For the general election, I have been and will continue to actively support Hawkins and the rest of the Green Party ticket. Unlike the Teachout campaign, which can make an impact only if successful, I view working with the Green Party as part of growing a movement that can continue growing well into the future. One can find my recent letter-to-the-editor on behalf of Hawkins's campaign here.
The potential electoral impacts of this news are hard to determine at this stage. A recent Siena College poll showed Cuomo with a 37-point lead over Astorino (60-23), with Hawkins drawing 6%. Other polls have shown similar results. In addition, there has been no polling of a Cuomo-Teachout primary; in May Cuomo defeated Teachout by a 59-41 margin at the Working Families Party convention. All of this seems to indicate that Cuomo was in strong position for reelection before today.
The question is whether that will change. There is certainly an undercurrent of discontent with the Governor, both Left and Right, and today's news will only serve to intensify this. Liberals and progressives are angry with Mr. Cuomo for failing them on tax policy, education funding, and campaign finance reform, among other things. A decisive moment came in May at the Working Families Party convention. Cuomo was able to ward off the Teachout challenge by brokering a deal with party leaders through New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and his union allies. In the agreement, Cuomo promised to support a Democratic majority in the state senate (currently controlled by a Republican-IDC coalition) in order to work for a progressive agenda in the next legislative session. Many (including myself) were not convinced. Indeed, just a day later Cuomo began backtracking on some aspects of the "deal".
It was from this scenario that the current Zephyr Teachout-Tim Wu (who is opposing Cuomo running mate Kathy Hochul) primary challenge emerged. Teachout, a Fordham law professor and veteran of the 2004 Howard Dean campaign, is running a campaign based on economic populism and good government reform; she has at times been compared to Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Her campaign so far has attracted disaffected activists associated with the WFP and/or its partners, as well as other New York liberals and progressives. The likelihood of a Teachout primary victory is slim, although this report does perhaps crack open the door a tiny bit. If she were to win, New York would see a very convoluted four-way race, with Teachout on the Democratic line, Astorino on the Republican and Conservative lines, Cuomo still on the Working Families and Independence lines, and Howie Hawkins on the Green line. If that were to somehow happen, frankly anything would be possible: Astorino winning due to a divided left, Cuomo winning on the third-party lines, or Teachout or even Hawkins slipping through to the victory.
The Hawkins campaign on the Green Party line is certainly a big beneficiary of this report as well. The party received 60,000 votes in 2010, enough to maintain ballot status through this cycle, and is in far stronger shape here in 2014. The campaign has already raised more funds than in their entire run last time, and finally has begun outreach in the New York City area (the party is mostly based in Syracuse). Polling has shown Hawkins drawing between 4% and 6%, perhaps with room to grow. That would especially be the case if Teachout fails to win the Democratic primary, which would leave Hawkins as the only progressive candidate in the race.
Rob Astorino should also not be forgotten here. Although he still has little name recognition and has been polling in the 20s, it must be considered that he appeals directly to Upstate conservative ire with Cuomo and his policies. The Right has become incensed with Cuomo over the SAFE Act, Common Core, and the delay over hydrofracking on the Southern Tier. I would not be surprised if Astorino's numbers improve as the race progresses.
Besides Cuomo himself, I think the other big loser here is the Working Families Party. Many supporters of the party, especially those directly involved in community activism and organizing, were skeptical at the time of Cuomo's nomination, and nothing has taken place since to assuage their concerns. Even the deal to bring the IDC back into coalition with the Democrats came at the expense of two progressive primary challengers, John Liu and Oliver Koppell, who immediately lost their WFP endorsements. To add insult to injury, both the unions and Mayor de Blasio ended up endorsing their opponents, Tony Avella and Senate co-President Jeffrey Klein. These so-called concessions have drawn the attention of progressives at the national level, with the widely read blog Daily Kos heavily criticizing both Cuomo and the WFP. I find it likely that the WFP will lose a significant number of votes from 2010, and some have already stated that they will instead vote for the Green Party. Even before this revelation, the Cuomo endorsement was having a tangible negative impact on organizing efforts by the WFP's partner organizations, including Citizen Action of New York.
Even if Cuomo does win reelection, which still seems highly likely, this controversy over the Moreland Commission will likely continue to haunt the Governor, especially if he has plans to run for higher office one day. It is no secret here in Albany that many think Mr. Cuomo wants to run for President, perhaps as soon as 2016. A scandal involving charges of corruption, ethics violations, and potential criminal activity can do nothing to help that cause.
On a more personal note, I actually had the chance to meet Larry Schwartz, the secretary to the Governor who is at the center of the controversy, just last month. Described to me as the "second most powerful person in the state" (behind Cuomo), I would not be surprised at all if these allegations prove to be true.
As for my own view of the race, I intend to vote for Teachout in the Democratic primary, although I will not actively campaign for her. However, I will note that it is because of candidacies like hers that I am registered as a Democrat. For the general election, I have been and will continue to actively support Hawkins and the rest of the Green Party ticket. Unlike the Teachout campaign, which can make an impact only if successful, I view working with the Green Party as part of growing a movement that can continue growing well into the future. One can find my recent letter-to-the-editor on behalf of Hawkins's campaign here.
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