Some Comments on the Election Results
Man, what a disaster. Turnout was the story, hands down. In New York, less than a third of registered voters actually voted. The reason may be quite simple: the man at the top of the Democratic ticket, Andrew Cuomo. He drew no enthusiasm from his base, so they didn't bother to show up. Cuomo's victory was underwhelming, to put it mildly. In the Capital District, for example, he carried only one county (Albany) and even then by only a 44-42 margin. Even more stunning is that at the same time Tom DiNapoli won the county by over 40 points. This was clearly a rebuke of Mr. Cuomo, his policies, and his methods (see: Moreland, LIPA, fracking study).
Cuomo's weak performance likely hurt Democrats running in congressional races down ballot. Lee Zeldin defeated incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop by almost 10 in the 1st district. Michael Grimm (despite indictment on 20 federal counts) easily beat his weak opponent in the 11th. Dan Maffei lost reelection in the 24th, a district that handily went for Obama in 2012. Most stunningly, Louise Slaughter is (as of this moment) barely holding on in the 25th, a district every commentator regarded as "Safe D".
But the real loser undoubtedly was the Working Families Party. For the most part, they got what they had coming to them. They nominated Cuomo in May (I was there). He did nothing but screw them over afterward. Now, they're relegated to row E for the next four years (their vote undermined in part by Cuomo's "Women's Equality" line). Even worse, the state senate fell into Republican hands outright. Democratic control of the senate was the whole point of endorsing Cuomo; he didn't deliver. The WFP's complaining after the fact seems awfully weak, considering that they knew (not should have known, but knew) that this was likely to happen. In other words. they dug their own grave
The real winner (well, besides the Republicans, obviously) was the Green Party. Howie Hawkins drew nearly 5% of the vote, many times over what he got in 2010. They drew double digits in several upstate counties (Tompkins - 16%, Albany - 13%, Columbia/Ulster - 11%, Otsego/Rensselaer 10%). The party will now occupy row C on the ballot. This despite limited campaign cash, little media attention, and only one debate. Moreover, Matt Funicello captured 11% in the 21st congressional district.
Nationally, it was a disastrous evening for Dems. They lost the Senate, not all that surprising but ugly nonetheless. Mark Pryor in Arkansas did worse than Brad Hutto in South Carolina. Mitch McConnell outperformed his 2008 marks. David Perdue avoided a runoff and won outright. Dems lost in Colorado, Iowa, and (most disappointingly) North Carolina. Virginia proved to be a nail-biter, and still isn't quite over. They're losing in Alaska, and likely to lose the runoff in Louisiana. Even Pat Roberts managed to win reelection by double-digits. A bloodbath most definitely.
The governors races, however, are what really proved shocking. It was thought that Democrats might pick up a seat or two; instead, they lost seats on home turf. Only dead-man-walking Tom Corbett (and perhaps Sean Parnell, to an independent) went down for the Reps. Meanwhile, Democrats lost not only Arkansas (a tough race to begin with) and Illinois (thanks to the extremely unpopular Pat Quinn), but also Maryland and Massachusetts, two open seat races in blue states. They lost to Tea Party wavers in Maine, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all states that twice went for Obama. Sam Brownback, who has completely wrecked the economy of Kansas, somehow won reelection despite trailing in almost every poll. Once promising targets like South Carolina and Georgia (where Nathan Deal avoided a runoff) proved to be duds. Even newly minted Texas Democratic superstar Wendy Davis underperformed her counterpart from Oklahoma! Even the races they won were unimpressive. Democratic candidates won only pluralities in Rhode Island, Oregon, and Vermont (where the legislature will have to vote to officially elect soon-to-be-former DGA-chair Peter Shumlin).The only real bright spots were that Democrats held on in Colorado and Connecticut, two very tough races indeed.
This was truly a "tornado" election. Republicans will almost certainly hold their largest House majority since the Herbert Hoover administration. As for state legislatures, Democrats will control their fewest since 1860 (!). Meanwhile, Republicans will likely set a record for the most seats they have ever held, as they picked up the lower chambers in WV, NV, MN, and NM (and perhaps CO and WA), along with the upper chambers of NV, NY, ME, CO, and WA (and tied WV). Dems also lost other crucial local and statewide races (perhaps none more important than the Secretary of State of Ohio, a key 2016 battleground).
The next few years will be very red (tea?) flavored indeed.
Cuomo's weak performance likely hurt Democrats running in congressional races down ballot. Lee Zeldin defeated incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop by almost 10 in the 1st district. Michael Grimm (despite indictment on 20 federal counts) easily beat his weak opponent in the 11th. Dan Maffei lost reelection in the 24th, a district that handily went for Obama in 2012. Most stunningly, Louise Slaughter is (as of this moment) barely holding on in the 25th, a district every commentator regarded as "Safe D".
But the real loser undoubtedly was the Working Families Party. For the most part, they got what they had coming to them. They nominated Cuomo in May (I was there). He did nothing but screw them over afterward. Now, they're relegated to row E for the next four years (their vote undermined in part by Cuomo's "Women's Equality" line). Even worse, the state senate fell into Republican hands outright. Democratic control of the senate was the whole point of endorsing Cuomo; he didn't deliver. The WFP's complaining after the fact seems awfully weak, considering that they knew (not should have known, but knew) that this was likely to happen. In other words. they dug their own grave
The real winner (well, besides the Republicans, obviously) was the Green Party. Howie Hawkins drew nearly 5% of the vote, many times over what he got in 2010. They drew double digits in several upstate counties (Tompkins - 16%, Albany - 13%, Columbia/Ulster - 11%, Otsego/Rensselaer 10%). The party will now occupy row C on the ballot. This despite limited campaign cash, little media attention, and only one debate. Moreover, Matt Funicello captured 11% in the 21st congressional district.
Nationally, it was a disastrous evening for Dems. They lost the Senate, not all that surprising but ugly nonetheless. Mark Pryor in Arkansas did worse than Brad Hutto in South Carolina. Mitch McConnell outperformed his 2008 marks. David Perdue avoided a runoff and won outright. Dems lost in Colorado, Iowa, and (most disappointingly) North Carolina. Virginia proved to be a nail-biter, and still isn't quite over. They're losing in Alaska, and likely to lose the runoff in Louisiana. Even Pat Roberts managed to win reelection by double-digits. A bloodbath most definitely.
The governors races, however, are what really proved shocking. It was thought that Democrats might pick up a seat or two; instead, they lost seats on home turf. Only dead-man-walking Tom Corbett (and perhaps Sean Parnell, to an independent) went down for the Reps. Meanwhile, Democrats lost not only Arkansas (a tough race to begin with) and Illinois (thanks to the extremely unpopular Pat Quinn), but also Maryland and Massachusetts, two open seat races in blue states. They lost to Tea Party wavers in Maine, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all states that twice went for Obama. Sam Brownback, who has completely wrecked the economy of Kansas, somehow won reelection despite trailing in almost every poll. Once promising targets like South Carolina and Georgia (where Nathan Deal avoided a runoff) proved to be duds. Even newly minted Texas Democratic superstar Wendy Davis underperformed her counterpart from Oklahoma! Even the races they won were unimpressive. Democratic candidates won only pluralities in Rhode Island, Oregon, and Vermont (where the legislature will have to vote to officially elect soon-to-be-former DGA-chair Peter Shumlin).The only real bright spots were that Democrats held on in Colorado and Connecticut, two very tough races indeed.
This was truly a "tornado" election. Republicans will almost certainly hold their largest House majority since the Herbert Hoover administration. As for state legislatures, Democrats will control their fewest since 1860 (!). Meanwhile, Republicans will likely set a record for the most seats they have ever held, as they picked up the lower chambers in WV, NV, MN, and NM (and perhaps CO and WA), along with the upper chambers of NV, NY, ME, CO, and WA (and tied WV). Dems also lost other crucial local and statewide races (perhaps none more important than the Secretary of State of Ohio, a key 2016 battleground).
The next few years will be very red (tea?) flavored indeed.
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